Forecasting :: essays papers

Forecasting In my assignment I will forecast the third and the fourth quarter revenues of Consolidated Edison Company for the year 1996. The companys main fields are electricity, gas and steam supplying. In the fact of every company it is important to forecast the future revenues to be able to write in code the companys expected profits. That is the situation in this case as well, so I must do my job as perfect as I can.I got the past eleven years data, from which I can analyse the whole situation and which I can use to predict for the future. To return the forecast more accurate I can use the actual quarterly revenues.Quarterly revenues for Consolidated Edison Company($ million), 1985-1995YearMarch 31.June 30.September 30. declination 31.19851441 1209 1526 132119861414 1187 1411 118519871284 1125 1493 119219881327 1102 1469 121319891387 1218 1575 137119901494 1263 1613 136919911 479 1330 1720 134419921456 1280 1717 148019931586 1396 1800 148319941697 1392 1822 146119951669 1460 1880 152819961867 1540SourceThe Value Line Investment Survey (New York Value Line, 1990, 1993, 1996) p.170. There are several different methods, which can be used by forecasters. For this case I will test the nave, the moving averages, the exponential smoothing, the double moving averages, the deseasonalisation, the linear